The following is a challenging mind puzzle that was presented to our statistics class several years ago. It was originally created by game show host, Monty Hall. Highly educated statisticians and mathematicians have often erred in their approach and solution to this problem; partly defeated by an inflexible academic paradigm, that led to incorrect and overly complex approaches. High level math is NOT required. A calculator is NOT required. Having taken a statistics course is NOT required. What is required is good logic and critical thinking skills.
Visualize a stage with 3 curtains. Behind one curtain
is a car. Behind a second curtain is a goat.
Behind the final curtain is another goat. However,
you don't know which item has been placed behind which curtain.
Your goal is to select the CAR.
You select one of the 3 curtains.
Then, of the two remaining, Monty Hall opens ONE of them, revealing
a GOAT.
Now, you know that behind the two remaining closed curtains (one
of which, you initially selected) is the other goat, and the car.
However, you still don't know which item is behind which curtain.
You now are given 2 options:
1) Keep your original selection,
or
2) SWITCH to the OTHER curtain.
Herein lies the challenge:
Do you maintain your original choice, or do you switch
to the other closed curtain?
And WHY?